Explainer | Rising Seas, Rising Pressure: Is New Zealand Prepared for Climate Migration in the Pacific?

Written by Regina Balbalosa

Climate change is increasingly reshaping the Pacific region. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and more frequent extreme weather events are placing growing pressure on communities across low-lying island nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2023). 

For many Pacific countries, climate change is not simply an environmental issue. It has implications for economic security, food production, infrastructure, public health, and, increasingly, migration. As environmental pressures intensify, questions are emerging about whether existing immigration systems are equipped to respond to future displacement. 

As one of the Pacific's closest neighbours, New Zealand has long supported regional development, climate resilience, and labour mobility initiatives. However, current immigration pathways were largely designed before climate-induced migration became a significant policy concern. This article examines New Zealand's current approach to climate migration in the Pacific, explores existing policy gaps, and considers whether the country is prepared for a future in which environmental displacement becomes increasingly common. 

Climate Migration and the Pacific 

The Pacific is often identified as one of the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. According to the IPCC (2023), sea-level rise is expected to continue throughout the century, increasing risks for low-lying coastal communities and small island developing states. Countries such as Kiribati and Tuvalu face particular challenges due to their geography. Rising sea levels can contaminate freshwater supplies, damage agricultural land, and increase the frequency of flooding events. These pressures may make it increasingly difficult for communities to remain in their traditional homes. 

Climate migration refers to the movement of people influenced by environmental change and climate-related impacts. Unlike conventional refugee movements, climate migration often occurs gradually and may involve a combination of environmental, economic, and social factors. Many Pacific leaders have rejected narratives portraying their populations as passive "climate refugees". Instead, they have promoted the concept of "migration with dignity," which emphasises planned mobility, economic opportunity, and the preservation of cultural identity (McAdam, 2012). 

New Zealand's Current Immigration Framework 

At present, New Zealand does not formally recognise climate refugees under immigration law. This position was highlighted in the well-known case of Ioane Teitiota, a Kiribati national who sought refugee status in New Zealand due to the impacts of climate change in his home country. The courts ultimately ruled that environmental degradation alone did not satisfy the legal requirements of refugee protection under existing international law (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR], 2020). 

Despite this limitation, New Zealand maintains several migration pathways that are relevant to Pacific communities. The Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme allows temporary employment opportunities for workers from Pacific nations, particularly in horticulture and viticulture sectors. In addition, the Pacific Access Category Resident Visa provides annual residency opportunities for eligible applicants from selected Pacific countries (Immigration New Zealand, 2025). 

Beyond immigration settings, New Zealand has also invested in climate resilience and adaptation initiatives throughout the Pacific through development assistance and regional partnerships (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade [MFAT], n.d.). While these programmes strengthen regional relationships, they were not specifically designed to address long-term climate displacement. 

Where Are the Policy Gaps? 

Although New Zealand has taken steps to support Pacific communities, several policy challenges remain. First, existing migration pathways are limited in scale and purpose. Labour mobility schemes are primarily designed to meet workforce needs rather than provide long-term solutions for environmentally displaced populations. 

Second, climate migration remains a legal grey area. International refugee law was developed in response to persecution and conflict and does not explicitly cover displacement caused by climate change (UNHCR, 2020). As a result, individuals facing environmental threats may struggle to access traditional protection mechanisms.

Third, questions of regional responsibility continue to emerge. Pacific Island countries contribute only a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet are among the most exposed to climate-related risks (IPCC, 2023). This has led some policymakers and researchers to argue that developed countries should play a larger role in supporting future migration pathways. 

Finally, migration is not solely an economic issue. Relocation can affect cultural identity, community cohesion, and connections to ancestral land. Effective policy responses, therefore, require close collaboration with Pacific governments and communities. 

Possible Policy Responses 

As climate pressures increase, policymakers may need to consider new approaches. One option would be the creation of a dedicated climate mobility pathway for Pacific communities affected by environmental change. Such a programme could allow for planned migration rather than emergency responses during future crises. 

Another possibility is greater regional coordination. The Pacific Islands Forum's 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent highlights the importance of collective regional planning and cooperation on shared challenges, including climate change (Pacific Islands Forum, 2023). New Zealand could also strengthen settlement and integration support for Pacific migrants through housing assistance, education programmes, employment services, and culturally responsive community initiatives. 

Lastly, future governments may face growing pressure to reconsider how humanitarian protections are interpreted in the context of climate change. While significant legal and political challenges remain, international discussions on climate-related displacement are continuing to evolve. 

Conclusion

Climate migration is likely to become one of the most significant public policy challenges facing the Pacific region during the coming decades. Although New Zealand has established migration pathways and invested heavily in regional climate partnerships, its current immigration framework was not designed to address large-scale environmental displacement. Existing policies remain focused primarily on labour mobility and traditional immigration categories rather than climate migration itself. 

As environmental pressures intensify, New Zealand will face increasing expectations to demonstrate leadership within the Pacific. Developing proactive, coordinated, and culturally informed migration policies may become an important part of maintaining regional stability and strengthening New Zealand's role as a Pacific partner. The question is no longer whether climate change will influence migration in the Pacific. The more pressing question is whether current policy settings are prepared for the challenges ahead.

References 

Immigration New Zealand. (2025). Pacific Access Category Resident Visa. https://www.immigration.govt.nz/visas/pacific-access-category-resident-visa/ 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf

McAdam, J. (2012). Climate change, forced migration, and international law. Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/book/7411

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. (n.d.). Climate change support. https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/aid-and-development/climate-change-support

Pacific Islands Forum. (2023). 2050 Strategy for the blue Pacific continent. https://forumsec.org/sites/default/files/2023-11/PIFS-2050-Strategy-Blue-Pacific-Continent-WEB-5Aug2022-1.pdf 

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2020). Legal considerations regarding claims for international protection related to the adverse effects of climate change and disasters. https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/ACPC/CCDA9/pre-events/Legal%20considerations%20regarding%20claims%20for%20international%20protection%20made%20in%20the%20context%20of%20the%20adverse%20effects%20of%20climate%20change%20and%20disasters.pdf